Technical Name Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)、Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS)
Project Operator National Central University, Earthquake-Disaster & Risk EvaluationManagement Center (E-DREaM)
Project Host 馬國鳳
After the publication of TEM PSHA2015. Updated version to the TEM PSHA2019, we considered updated seismogenic structure database, newly identified structure with 3D geometry, an earthquake catalog to 2016, state-of-the-art seismic models,site amplification factors.
The ETAS (Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence) model aims to forecast the aftershocks from a large mainshock in real-timereduce its effectiveness.
Scientific Breakthrough
PSHA-2019 implementing a time-dependent factor through Brownian Passage Time model. Including possibility of earthquake on multiple-structure. The first seismic hazard map incorporating site condition in Taiwan.
The ETAS model could be used to develop a real-time aftershock forecasting systemoffer the possible effect of the aftershocks within 24 hours after the main shock.
Industrial Applicability
Three features of PSHA-2019: Implementing a time-dependent factor for a better seismic model. Including possibility of earthquake on multiple-structure to estimate plausible disaster scenarios. First seismic hazard map incorporating site condition in Taiwan.
The real-time aftershock forecasting system can offer the aftershock information, its possible damage,the reference of the slightly damaged buildingsthe manufacturing operations.
Keyword Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis PSHA Seismology ETAS model aftershock forecasting Poisson process Seismic Hazard PSHA2015 PSHA2019 TEM
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