| Technical Name |
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)、Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) |
| Project Operator |
National Central University, Earthquake-Disaster & Risk EvaluationManagement Center (E-DREaM) |
| Project Host |
馬國鳳 |
| Summary |
After the publication of TEM PSHA2015. Updated version to the TEM PSHA2019, we considered updated seismogenic structure database, newly identified structure with 3D geometry, an earthquake catalog to 2016, state-of-the-art seismic models,site amplification factors.The ETAS (Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence) model aims to forecast the aftershocks from a large mainshock in real-timereduce its effectiveness.
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| Scientific Breakthrough |
PSHA-2019 implementing a time-dependent factor through Brownian Passage Time model. Including possibility of earthquake on multiple-structure. The first seismic hazard map incorporating site condition in Taiwan.The ETAS model could be used to develop a real-time aftershock forecasting systemoffer the possible effect of the aftershocks within 24 hours after the main shock.
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| Industrial Applicability |
Three features of PSHA-2019: Implementing a time-dependent factor for a better seismic model. Including possibility of earthquake on multiple-structure to estimate plausible disaster scenarios. First seismic hazard map incorporating site condition in Taiwan.The real-time aftershock forecasting system can offer the aftershock information, its possible damage,the reference of the slightly damaged buildingsthe manufacturing operations.
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| Keyword |
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis PSHA Seismology ETAS model aftershock forecasting Poisson process Seismic Hazard PSHA2015 PSHA2019 TEM |
